10,000
Manifest Sample
from 75,319 cohort
Total Fair-Window Population
75,319 unique customers
Single-Item vs Multi-Item Baskets
87.2% single / 12.8% multi-item
Average Entry Basket Value
R$ 137.60 (Median: R$ 87.00)
2.28%
228 repeat buyers
Class Imbalance Base Rate
1 in ~44 customers reorders within 90d
Delivery Transit Impact on Reorder
<7 days: 2.8% repeat · >14 days: 1.6%
Fulfillment Lead Time Correlation
Fast shipping produces +75% retention lift
1.73×
34.65% captured
vs 20.0% random
Decile 1 Solo Performance
Top 10% captures 20.6% of repeats (2.06× lift)
Top 30% Outreach (Deciles 1–3)
Reaches 47.4% (~half of all repeat purchases)
Ad Spend Efficiency Gain
Cuts 70%–80% of wasted broadcast discounts
0.0384
+68.8% lift
over 0.0228 prior
ROC-AUC Baseline Metric
0.6075 (Random Baseline: 0.5000)
Default 0.50 Threshold Catch-Rate
Recall: 51.60% (catches >half of all repeat buyers)
Optimal F1 Threshold (p=0.616)
Precision: 4.93% (>2.1× higher than base rate)
Cumulative Repeat Buyer Capture by Decile
Custom stepped-area trajectory comparing XGBoost model ranking vs. random baseline. Click any milestone node to filter the entire dashboard.
Model Cumulative Capture (Target Zone highlighted)
Random Targeting Baseline (1:1 Slope)
| Decile | Customers | Actual Repeats | % Captured | Cumulative % Captured | Random Baseline % | Cumulative Lift |
|---|
What Drives Repeat Purchases
Top 10 initial order features ranked by XGBoost relative gain share.
Repeat Propensity by Category
Click any category bar to filter the cohort. Note the 4.5× gap between lifestyle and durables.
Lifestyle / Replenishable
Durable / One-Off
Payment Channel Impact
Initial payment instrument. Click to isolate.
Top Geographic Hubs
Regional customer distribution. Click to isolate state.